Teahupo’o. Chopes. The End of the Road. Wall of Skulls.

Whatever you call it and however you choose to pronounce it, when Southern Ocean swells meet the pillow reef that juts out into the Passa Hava’e seafloor below, it’s magic! This Tahitian wonder is now widely known as the world’s most perfect and powerful wave.

Let’s get straight to it. The swell forecast for the main event window isn’t as strong as what we just saw for the trials (how nuts were those back to back 10s!?), but the amount of on-the-line career-critical drama about to go down should keep fans well and truly engaged, and set up for some do or die heats. To fully appreciate what we might see play out in the last Regular Event of the season, we first need to look ahead to WSL Finals Day and consider qualification for the 2024 Olympic Games.

To jog your memory, Finals Day will feature the Men’s and Women’s top 5 pitted against one another over a September day of Lower Trestles trickery. Within a progressive knock-out format, the winner of the 5th & 4th ranked surfers* will challenge 3rd rank, the winner of which will challenge 2nd rank, the winner of which will challenge the yellow jersey wearer in a best-of-three World Title-deciding showdown.

And what of the Olympics? Don’t forget only a total of 10 men & 8 women from the WSL, max. 2 per nation per gender, will provisionally** qualify for Paris 2024. Some surfers will still be vying for these spots on Finals Day if need be, though many qualification places will be determined in Tahiti.

Teahupo’o is the last opportunity to grab ranking points before the top five get swept up for Finals Day.

After the Midyear Cut earlier in the year, there are no throwaways and all events contribute ranking points to surfers’ totals. As Seth Moniz and Kelly Slater have each skipped an event in the back half of the season, they’re each forced to include a low 265pts result to their scoreline and are sitting at the bottom of the ladder. Consequently, these low-seeded Hawaiian pipeline specialists alongside the knowledgeable Tahitian trials winner Matahi Drollet, wildcards Kauli Vaast & Vahine Fierro and injury replacements Mihimana Braye & Aelan Vaast, will pose a significant threat to the reigning high seeds.

The current top three men, Filipe Toledo, Ethan Ewing and Griffin Colapinto representing Brazil, Australia and America, are already a lock for Finals Day. The top four women, Carissa Moore, Tyler Wright, Caroline Marks and Molly Picklum, two Hawaiian/Americans and two Australians, have also all clinched.

While these athletes are ‘safe’, they’re still competing for ranking order which at least carries World Title implications (Finals Day seeding order) and also Olympics qualification consequences for Tyler, Caroline and Molly.

So who needs what result?

Starting from the top, Filipe will guarantee 1st seed at Lowers should he pass just the Elimination Round (ER), and otherwise can only be overtaken by Griffin (or theoretically Ethan) winning the contest. As shocking news breaks about Ethan’s unfortunate injury sustained during practice, it seems definite that Griffin will move to 2nd seed for Finals Day. The worst possible outcome after Teahupo’o for Ethan is slipping to 4th seed below João. I wish him as well as Bettylou a full and speedy recovery. 

These three leading competitors, as well as Italian Leo Fioravante, are already confirmed Olympics qualifiers. By entering the contest alone, John John Florence is also guaranteed enough points to be deemed the second American/Hawaiian Olympics qualifier. 

Carissa will hold 1st rank going into Lowers so long as she fends off Tyler at Chopes. Tyler will take the lead by going just one round deeper when advancing to the Quarters or by winning the contest, or two rounds deeper otherwise. Entering Finals Day in at worst 2nd position to Australian Tyler should confirm Carissa’s currently unofficial Provisional Qualification for the 2024 Olympic Games. This is because only one surfer in positions 3-5, potentially American, can surpass her en route to the best-of-three final encounter.

Those still surfing to clinch a place in the Final 5 have the most to gain and lose at The End of the Road. 

In the Men’s João Chianca and Yago Dora go into the contest inside the bubble and defending the two remaining Final 5 places on offer. Having a significant lead over the pack below, João will clinch if he can bypass the ER. If alternatively he first trips up in his Opening Round heat against Jordy Smith and Kauli, and then again in a one-on-one ER heat, he can be overtaken by Yago placing 2nd or better, by Gabriel Medina winning the contest, or become tied with John John Florence winning the contest. This tie would occur just above or on the Final 5 cut line dependent on if Yago places 2nd or not, and if settled in the usual fashion (heat wins this season exc. ER heats), John would clinch. There is no way that Gabe and John can both simultaneously clinch. 

Another more likely outcome to João being eliminated in the ER is if Yago can’t get deep enough in the contest to hold off Gabriel, John or Jack Robinson. Even Leo and Ryan Callinan can jeopardise Yago’s Final 5 place should they win the contest while he fails to reach the Quarterfinals. Connor O’Leary can do it too should Yago miss out on the Round of 16. Jack will clinch with a victory in the final against anyone but Yago.

All male athletes that clinch should become their nation’s second Olympics qualifier unless a fellow countryman clinches beside him, moving their conversation to Lowers. Keep in mind that Brazilians João, Yago and Gabriel as well as Australians Jack, Ryan and Connor are all looking to outdo each other respectively. It’s understood Connor is representing Australia on this year’s CT, however Japan’s NSA reported in early June that Connor’s application to surf for Japan instead of Australia in the Olympics was pending with the ISA. Should he have been surfing for Japan, Connor would’ve guaranteed qualification for the Olympics by making the Ro16. Instead, what we find now is Rio Waida, currently outside qualification, looking to better one of Kanoa Igarashi, Jordy or Matt McGillivray to steal one of the Olympics tickets they’re currently minding.

The clinch scenarios for the last Final 5 place in the Women’s are no less straight forward..

Caity Simmers, who at The Box showed us she’s unafraid to throw herself over a ledge, sits inside the bubble and will need to surf the final to guarantee it from popping. Should she only make the Semifinals, Lakey Peterson can take her spot to clinch by winning the contest. If she bows out in the Quarters, Lakey and Stephanie Gilmore will overtake only by winning.

If Caity loses out in the ER Steph can mathematically get herself over the line just by making the final, but she’ll be running a risk should she share it with Lakey or Tatiana. So in this case Steph will really need to win. Also, with Caity falling out of the mix early, Tatiana will clinch by winning the contest. The only exception is if Lakey goes runner-up or places 3rd resulting in a tie on the Final 5 cut line. Lakey leads Tatiana by 3 heat wins this season prior to the contest getting underway. 

Should Americans Caity or Lakey clinch the last available Final 5 position, looking ahead to Lowers they’ll be competing with Caroline for a ticket to Paris 2024 beside Carissa. An American clinching at Chopes would additionally qualify two Aussie Irukandjis Tyler and Molly for the Olympics. Alternatively, should Steph clinch, she’ll set her sights on another daylong sprint from 5th to 1st and likely battle with Molly for Olympics qualification. This is because the only way Molly can surpass Tyler at Chopes is if Tyler exits in the ER alongside Molly taking out the event.